Cross-country comparison over absolute dates⮸
Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸
Cross-country comparison with approximately aligned start days⮸
Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸
Per-country analysis with exponential and sigmoidal projections, and new cases analysis⮸
IMPORTANT: The projections are only accurate if the fit is good (it often isn't), and assuming nothing changes
going forward. The sigmoid is omitted if a reasonable fit can't be computed, but this still doesn't mean that
the fit is good if it is shown.
The dashed lines show best fit projections from a few previous days for comparison.
Start date 2020-02-28 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $8,530$ on 2020-08-25
Best fit exponential: \(539 \times 10^{0.006t}\) (doubling rate \(47.4\) days)
Start date 2020-03-19 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $175$ on 2020-08-25
Best fit exponential: \(39.2 \times 10^{0.004t}\) (doubling rate \(71.1\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{153.1}{1 + 10^{-0.015 (t - 58.7)}}\) (asimptote \(153.1\))
Start date 2020-02-28 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $2,231$ on 2020-08-25
Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $86,891$ on 2020-08-25
Best fit exponential: \(1.11 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.006t}\) (doubling rate \(54.6\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{89,840.4}{1 + 10^{-0.017 (t - 97.3)}}\) (asimptote \(89,840.4\))
Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $5,814$ on 2020-08-25
Best fit exponential: \(1.63 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.004t}\) (doubling rate \(76.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{5,667.5}{1 + 10^{-0.025 (t - 55.2)}}\) (asimptote \(5,667.5\))
Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $81,077$ on 2020-08-25
Start date 2020-02-28 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $10,454$ on 2020-08-25
Best fit exponential: \(4.1 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.003t}\) (doubling rate \(119.9\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{8,958.4}{1 + 10^{-0.038 (t - 34.9)}}\) (asimptote \(8,958.4\))
Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $264$ on 2020-08-25
Best fit exponential: \(120 \times 10^{0.003t}\) (doubling rate \(118.7\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{248.0}{1 + 10^{-0.049 (t - 31.0)}}\) (asimptote \(248.0\))
Start date 2020-02-28 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $1,040$ on 2020-08-25
Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $7,981$ on 2020-08-25
Best fit exponential: \(2.54 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.003t}\) (doubling rate \(92.6\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{7,383.9}{1 + 10^{-0.031 (t - 50.8)}}\) (asimptote \(7,383.9\))
Start date 2020-03-21 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $335$ on 2020-08-25
Best fit exponential: \(142 \times 10^{0.003t}\) (doubling rate \(102.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{327.8}{1 + 10^{-0.049 (t - 36.1)}}\) (asimptote \(327.8\))
Start date 2020-03-05 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $546$ on 2020-08-25
Start date 2020-03-03 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $16,905$ on 2020-08-25
Best fit exponential: \(4.7 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.003t}\) (doubling rate \(89.3\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{14,011.8}{1 + 10^{-0.023 (t - 49.2)}}\) (asimptote \(14,011.8\))
Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $623$ on 2020-08-25
Best fit exponential: \(276 \times 10^{0.003t}\) (doubling rate \(112.8\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{604.5}{1 + 10^{-0.039 (t - 34.4)}}\) (asimptote \(604.5\))
Start date 2020-03-03 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $1,459$ on 2020-08-25
Start date 2020-02-28 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $2,077$ on 2020-08-25
Best fit exponential: \(975 \times 10^{0.002t}\) (doubling rate \(143.9\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{1,849.4}{1 + 10^{-0.072 (t - 29.8)}}\) (asimptote \(1,849.4\))
Start date 2020-03-15 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $10$ on 2020-08-25
Best fit exponential: \(7.14 \times 10^{-16} \times 10^{0.100t}\) (doubling rate \(3.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{10.0}{1 + 10^{-0.073 (t - 22.3)}}\) (asimptote \(10.0\))
Start date 2020-02-28 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $114$ on 2020-08-25
Start date 2020-03-03 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $82,447$ on 2020-08-25
Best fit exponential: \(2.24 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.003t}\) (doubling rate \(87.7\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{66,269.2}{1 + 10^{-0.030 (t - 47.2)}}\) (asimptote \(66,269.2\))
Start date 2020-03-11 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $9,996$ on 2020-08-25
Best fit exponential: \(4.09 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.003t}\) (doubling rate \(104.7\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{9,700.7}{1 + 10^{-0.050 (t - 38.8)}}\) (asimptote \(9,700.7\))
Start date 2020-03-03 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $54,160$ on 2020-08-25
Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $329,821$ on 2020-08-25
Best fit exponential: \(8.79 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.004t}\) (doubling rate \(81.8\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{299,781.9}{1 + 10^{-0.027 (t - 57.3)}}\) (asimptote \(299,781.9\))
Start date 2020-03-10 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $41,535$ on 2020-08-25
Best fit exponential: \(1.49 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.003t}\) (doubling rate \(92.8\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{40,546.2}{1 + 10^{-0.036 (t - 45.3)}}\) (asimptote \(40,546.2\))
Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $286,735$ on 2020-08-25
Start date 2020-02-22 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $261,174$ on 2020-08-25
Best fit exponential: \(9.76 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.003t}\) (doubling rate \(110.6\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{242,031.4}{1 + 10^{-0.035 (t - 44.6)}}\) (asimptote \(242,031.4\))
Start date 2020-02-24 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $35,445$ on 2020-08-25
Best fit exponential: \(1.35 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.003t}\) (doubling rate \(106.4\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{34,609.1}{1 + 10^{-0.035 (t - 46.7)}}\) (asimptote \(34,609.1\))
Start date 2020-02-23 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $19,714$ on 2020-08-25
